Commodity prices are back at trading on a steady note on Thursday after a volatile previous session as gold and silver prices traded marginally up. Crude oil prices continued to trade higher on positive fundamentals. Base metals witnessed mixed traded with range bound trading for the day. The dollar index ended near half a percent up for the day. Here is a look at how different commodities are behaving in today’s market.
Bullion prices traded steady with spot gold price at COMEX was trading near $1,782 per ounce while spot silver price at COMEX was trading flat near $27.31 per ounce in the morning trade. Bullion prices halted five day slide on Thursday on mixed global cues with profit taking in equity indices. Precious metals traded under pressure with rise in bond yields and stronger dollar. The risk on sentiments drove investors out after positive US retail sales data. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways to down for the day.
MCX Gold April resistance for the day lies at Rs. 46,700 per 10 grams with support at Rs. 46,000 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver March support lies at Rs. 68,000 per KG, resistance at Rs. 71,000 per KG.
Outlook: Crude Oil
Crude oil prices continued upside move with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil prices were trading nearly 1% up near $61.75 per barrel in the morning trade. Crude oil prices rallied to 13 month high levels on fuel demand recovery hopes over vaccine rollouts and positive economic data from the US. The cold snap in Texas has shut some of oil production facilities which may support oil prices to trade firm. Crude oil prices are expected to trade up for the day.
MCX Crude Oil February support lies at Rs. 4,450 per barrel with resistance at Rs. 4,560 per barrel.
Outlook: Base Metals
Base metals complex traded higher with most of the metals witnessed gap up opening as China returns from holidays. Copper prices surged to fresh eight years highs on supply deficit fears and higher demand with strong economic recovery. The rally in equity indices and vaccine rollouts may keep investment sentiments high in base metals. Base metals are expected to trade sideways to up for the day.
MCX Copper February support lies at Rs. 650 and resistance at Rs. 656.
MCX Zinc February support lies at Rs. 227, resistance at Rs. 232.
MCX Nickel February support lies at Rs. 1,350 with resistance at Rs. 1,390.
(Tapan Patel is a Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities)
By Ravindra Rao
MCX Gold April future is hovering around the long term trend line support near Rs 46,200 as it failed to hold the key support of Rs 46,600. Meanwhile, key resistance for April futures exists around Rs 46,600 (previous bottom), followed by Rs 46,920 (5 day EMA). On the other hand, key support holds around Rs 46,000, followed by Rs 45,660. Price is still moving inside the downward sloping channel with channel resistance near Rs 47,000. On the momentum front, RSI is hovering around 28, suggesting a weaker trend in gold price. Going by the above analysis price is expected to move in the band of Rs 46,000-46,600 with a sideways to downside bias.
Sell MCX Gold April at Rs 46,550 with a target of Rs 46,050 and a stop loss at Rs 46,800.
MCX Silver March future is moving in the range of Rs 68,200-70,760 since last week. The lower band of the range got support from 21 day EMA near Rs 68,400 and higher band resistance is from its previous top. Meanwhile, price is hovering above the bullish crossover of 5 and 21 day EMA which has supported the recovery in price rise. Price is still moving inside the rising channel with RSI at 52 suggesting sideways trend. Below Rs 68,200, next key support exists around Rs 67,200 (50 DEMA and lower band of the upward channel). Likewise on the upside key resistance exists around Rs 70,760, followed by Rs 71,600. So for the day price is expected to move in the range of Rs 68,400-70,760 with a sideways trend.
Sell MCX Silver March at Rs 69,900 with a target of Rs 68,500 and a stop loss at Rs 70,800.
(Ravindra Rao is VP-Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities)